It’s almost impossible to predict what will happen when the 5-2 Green Bay Packers take on the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers for the third time in 50 weeks at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California Thursday night.
Injuries and illness have wounded the Packers and all but decimated the 49ers.
I’m hard pressed to believe this one will look anything like the 37-8 dismantling last November 24 or the 37-20 drubbing in the NFC Championship Game last January at the same venue.
First, let’s get up to speed on all that’s transpired since last Sunday when the Packers were humbled by the Vikings and the Niners lost in Seattle.
Running back A.J. Dillon’s positive COVID test put him on the reserve list and took down fellow running back Jamaal Williams and linebacker Kamal Martin with him as close contacts. The lingering quad injury with Kevin King will have him miss another game and new injuries to Will Redmond and Vernon Scott have them ruled out leaving Green Bay stretched thin in the offensive and defensive backfields.
That’s nothing like the 49ers however as on Wednesday, their facility was shut down and the team went into the NFL’s intensive protocol after wide receiver Kendrick Bourne turned up positive. Starting tackle Trent Williams, rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk and the already injured Deebo Samuel were joined Bourne on the Reserve/Covid list as high risk close contacts. This came on the same day the team placed starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and All-Pro tight end George Kittle on injured reserve. They join a collection of 12 others, many of them key starters on both sides of the ball, on San Francisco’s IR list.
The Packers will face half the team they did last year, maybe they should be called the 24 and a halfers.
Despite the alarming coronavirus news just a day before the game, the Packers traveled west Wednesday night and the NFL plans to let them play.
When the Packers have the ball.
With no Williams or Dillon and Aaron Jones still listed as questionable with a calf strain, the running game will fall to second year back Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin who has practiced almost exclusively as a receiver this year. Both starting tackles, David Bakhtiari and Rick Wagner were also questionable on the final injury report which could complicate matters even more. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams remain however and that prolific combination will be a featured part of the attack and certainly the focal point for defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s unit. The key will be getting just enough production out of the ground game to utilize play action and movement against a very disciplined defensive scheme. Linebacker Fred Warner is a disruptive force that the Packers will want to stay away from. The attention paid on Adams should free up favorable matchups for tight ends Robert Tonyan and Jace Sternberger and it’s imperative a secondary receiver makes plays.
When the 49ers have the ball.
No Jimmy G, Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, their top four receivers, starting left tackle…. if the Packers can’t control this bunch, katy bar the door. One thing is certain, Head Coach Kyle Shanahan will not deviate from his wide zone run scheme and play action pass game. The 49ers do this very well regardless of who’s playing because they are four years into the system. Nick Mullens will take the reigns at quarterback and he’ll try to recapture the Thursday night magic of his first career start on a Thursday night in 2018 when he lit up the Raiders, going 16 of 22 for over 260 yards and three scores, putting up a passer rating of better than 151, the highest ever for a quarterback in his starting debut. He’s been forced to play in a handful of games this year with Garoppolo going down with ankle injuries and the numbers haven’t been nearly as glittering. The Packer defense is at it’s most productive when they play with a lead, reducing the reliance on the run game and unleashing their pressure package. If that formula is in play tonight, the results should look far better than the embarrassing effort up against Minnesota.
The bottom line.
The old adage is, “it’s not who you play but when you play ’em.” If not now, then when for the Packers against the 49ers? Matt LaFleur’s closest coaching mentor is Shanahan, the best man at his wedding was Saleh and his brother Mike is on the San Francisco staff. You know he’d finally like to get over these guys and it should happen against what amounts to a junior varsity lineup.
The Packers bounce back 30-20.
