By Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian rouble and stocks surged on Thursday after a telephone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in which the two leaders discussed ways to end the Ukraine war.
Hit by Western sanctions, Russian assets plummeted after the start of the war almost three years ago. Once a favourite play in emerging markets globally, most of them are now off-limits for Western investors.
The rouble closed up 3.7% at 90.50 against the dollar, the highest level for the Russian currency since September 2024, according to data from the over-the-counter market.
The rouble briefly touched the level of 89.90, the highest since September 11, during the trading session. Some foreign exchange booths in Moscow closed down on Thursday, Russian media reported, as they failed to keep up with the sharp dollar fall.
The rouble strengthened 2.6% against the dollar in the previous session and is up 20% since the start of this year. The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) index surged 5.8% on Wednesday and another 5.9% on Thursday.
“The moment investors have been waiting for has arrived. The next step towards easing geopolitical tensions,” Sinara brokerage analysts said.
The Russian stock market is up 11.1% since the start of the year.
“In focus are the phone talks between the presidents of Russia and the United States, as investors increasingly hope for geopolitical de-escalation,” Sberbank analysts said in a note.
Russia’s sanctioned corporations such as gas giant Gazprom, whose shares were hit by the loss of the European gas market, as well as dominant lender Sberbank and liquefied natural gas producer Novatek led the market rally.
Shares in Russia’s aluminium maker Rusal, one of the few Russian stocks still available for international investors, surged by almost 25% in Hong Kong and are at the highest since March 2023.
The Russian market capitalisation surged by 400 billion roubles on Thursday, up 6.2% from the previous session’s closing level. The MOEX stock index rose past 3,200 points for the first time since June 2024.
Western investors cannot buy assets at MOEX due to Western sanctions, imposed in 2024. Due to sanctions, all trade in dollars and euros have moved to the over-the-counter market, making China’s yuan the most traded foreign currency.
The market rally is taking place ahead of the central bank’s rate-setting meeting on February 14, at which the regulator is expected to keep its key rate on hold at 21%, the highest level since early 2000s as inflation shows no sign of slowing down.
“We believe that markets will factor in the easing of sanctions, the partial removal of barriers to financial transactions, the possible unblocking of assets, and the return of international companies,” Alfa Investment analysts said.
However, many analysts cautioned against excessive optimism, stressing that there was little certainty about the upcoming summit as well as possible Ukraine peace negotiations while there was a long road ahead.
“Once again, we approach this trigger with caution. Even in the best-case scenario, it will be a difficult road with its ups and corrections, requiring attention from investors,” said Sofya Donets from T-Bank.
(Editing by Mark Heinrich)
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