LONDON (Reuters) – As financial markets try to move past tariff fears, attention turns to what China will do to buffer its economy and how corporate America and business activity globally is holding up.
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings take place in Washington meanwhile against a backdrop of increased concern about U.S. isolationism.
Here’s the low-down on the week ahead in world markets from Rae Wee in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Dhara Ranasinghe, Yoruk Bahceli and Karin Strohecker in London.
1/ HUNKERING DOWN
China sets its benchmark lending rates on Monday at a time when investors are bracing for more monetary easing from Beijing to help offset the headwinds from hefty U.S. tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy.
Some analysts expect a reduction in one-year and five-year loan prime rates, which would mark the People’s Bank of China’s first cut since October last year.
Tariffs between the United States and China now stand at eye-watering levels of more than 100% and some banks are already cutting their China growth forecasts in a sign of the toll the trade war is expected to take.
Elsewhere in Asia, Bank Indonesia meets on Wednesday and policymakers are straddling a fine line as they weigh a darkening economic outlook against a rupiah that’s pinned near record lows.
2/ NOT SO MAGNIFICENT?
A slew of quarterly earnings in the coming week led by Tesla and Alphabet could shed greater light on how U.S. companies are wrestling with a shifting trade landscape.
Elon Musk’s electric vehicle maker and Google parent Alphabet are the first of the “Magnificent Seven” companies to report quarterly results, with the megacap growth stocks under pressure. AI-related spending will be another focus, while Tesla, whose shares have been hit particularly hard in 2025, is also in the spotlight because of Musk’s close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump. Investors will look for any insight from executives into the fallout from tariffs, with reports slated from major companies including 3M, Boeing, IBM, Merck, Intel, and Procter & Gamble. United Airlines on Tuesday warned of downside risks to its financial outlook if the U.S. economy slips into a recession — one sign of the challenges facing companies.
3/ PRICE RISK
Wednesday’s April flash PMIs should also give markets a sense of the first hit from Trump’s tariff chaos.
Trump has postponed reciprocal tariffs, but a widespread 10% levy on imports remains. U.S. companies’ input prices were already feeling the heat before the latest measures, Canada’s services PMI had hit a five year low.
Expect things to get worse.
The key number to watch is the U.S. manufacturing PMI input prices index, what S&P Global, which compiles the data, dubs the first port of call for the inflationary impact of tariffs.
It had already risen sharply to signal the fastest rate of input price rises for U.S. companies in almost two years in March.
Traders expect at least three U.S. rate cuts this year, but some banks are sceptical that it can cut at all given inflation risks.
4/WASHINGTON CALLING
Finance officials head to Washington for the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings – one of the biggest gatherings of such policy makers in the year.
Jobs growth is a
jostling for face time with the Trump administration.
The contours of how Trump sees Washington’s future role in and cooperation with Bretton Woods institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank might also become clearer.
Among the big set items is the Fund’s global economic outlook to be released on Tuesday. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already flagged that sweeping U.S. tariffs posed a “significant risk”, appealing to Washington and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce tensions.
5/ UNEASY
An uneasy calm has descended on investors, hopeful that the worst of the tariff-induced turmoil has passed.
Wall Street shares have recovered from more than one-year lows, corporate bond spreads have come back in (a little) and signs of dysfunction in the $29 trillion Treasury market have eased after a pause to hefty duties.
Trump is considering modifying auto tariffs.
But with confidence shaken, focus is fixed on Washington, especially since aggressive tariffs against China remain and growth fears persist.
The dollar is still heading for its worst month since 2022 and global investors have slashed U.S. stock holdings by a record amount in the past two months, says BofA. Deutsche Bank reckons a sustained shift in foreign investor allocation could generate “huge negative dollar flows”.
Markets rarely move in a straight line but when a trend is set, it’s hard to reverse quickly.
(Graphics by Kripa Jayaram, Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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