By Sameer Manekar
(Reuters) -Long positions on most Asian currencies dwindled over the past fortnight as market participants took a cautious view of the U.S. dollar, while sentiment towards the Indian rupee turned sharply bearish on threats of hefty U.S. tariffs, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Poll participants trimmed their long bets on China’s yuan to the lowest in a year and on Taiwan’s dollar to a 19-month low, the fortnightly survey of 12 respondents showed.
Short bets on the Indian rupee surged to their highest since early March as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on Indian goods over purchases of Russian oil.
Deepali Bhargava, Asia-Pacific regional head of research at ING, expects the tariffs to have a “meaningful impact” on India’s economic growth and weaken investor sentiment, though the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates could help stabilise the rupee.
Maybank analysts expect the USD-INR to face upward pressure following Trump’s threats of additional tariffs on Indian imports, with the pair expected to breach the 88 per dollar resistance level amid signs of a deadlock in talks with the United States.
Asian currencies sharply strengthened in the first half of the year owing to a weak dollar. While growing expectations of U.S. rate cuts could pressure the dollar, investors remain cautious on concerns that tariffs may weigh on regional economic growth.
Respondents also turned bearish on South Korea’s won for the first time since mid-April, as uncertainty over tax policy reforms and threats of U.S. tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceuticals cloud the outlook.
Bearish positions emerged in Indonesia’s rupiah for the first time in nearly three months, while short bets on the Philippine peso rose to a six-month high.
In contrast, investors remained bullish on the Singaporean dollar as the city-state’s political stability, low taxes, and high-yield equities attract foreign capital seeking quality and refuge in uncertain times.
Investors also stayed bullish on Malaysia’s ringgit and Thailand’s baht.
Market participants consider a stronger baht counterproductive to Thailand’s export-reliant and tourism-dependent economy, which is already struggling with limited fiscal space, high household debt, and political uncertainty.
The currency has risen more than 6% this year, not as much as some of its peers, but it poses a challenge to Thailand’s exporters, which now face more competition.
Jeff Ng, head of Asia macro strategy at SMBC, predicts limited baht strength going forward and forecasts support to the currency from clarity on the political landscape, tourism, and fiscal spending.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
7-Aug-25 -0.09 0.35 -0.87 0.35 -0.5 1.33 -0.58 0.35 -0.40
24-Jul-25 -0.57 -0.1 -1.09 -0.05 -1.06 0.51 -0.57 0.21 -0.14
10-Jul-25 -0.54 -0.63 -1.3 -0.38 -1.65 0.36 -0.48 -0.06 -0.11
26-Jun-25 -0.74 -1.06 -1.22 -0.2 -1.48 0.89 -0.76 0.21 -0.33
12-Jun-25 -0.78 -1.37 -1.24 -0.6 -1.58 0.03 -1.25 -0.93 -1.24
29-May-25 -0.67 -1.2 -1.34 -0.32 -1.5 -0.08 -1.04 -1.19 -1.14
15-May-25 0 -0.22 -0.54 0.7 -1.01 -0.19 -0.15 -0.68 -0.45
1-May-25 0.2 -0.06 -0.67 1.27 -0.53 -0.58 -0.4 -1.02 -0.61
17-Apr-25 0.57 0.19 -0.26 1.33 0.06 -0.2 0.04 -0.65 -0.3
(Reporting by Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
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